Anti-Corruption Data Collective urges CFTC to put a stop to prediction market betting on war
More than half of long shot bets on military & defence markets on Polymarket pay out, according to new analysis
Cases of suspected insider trading on military- and defense-related prediction markets – like that of the US serviceman indicted last week – appear to be the tip of an alarming, multi-million-dollar iceberg, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) said Thursday in a public comment submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
ACDC has analyzed 400,000 settled prediction markets on Polymarket for indicators of insider trading, finding that 52% of long shot bets on military and defense markets have been successful. ACDC defines long shot bets as bets priced with a probability of 35% and lower, and a value of $2,500 and above. Across Polymarket, only 14% of these bets were placed on the winning outcome, aligning with expectations. Political markets in general perform better, with 25% of longshots paying out. Within political markets, those related to military and defense events also present suspicious patterns of consistently successful users and well-timed bets, indicating a serious risk of users trading on insider information. Over $9.3 has been bet in successful long shot bets on military markets on Polymarket.
In general, ACDC found that betting on outcomes determined and known in advance by a small group of people – e.g. military actions or decisions by central banks and executive branches of government – display higher indicators of systemic vulnerability to insider trading than those determined by individuals or the public at large.
Honing in on the June 2025 US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, ACDC identified eight wallets that walked away with $1.8 million in combined profit — one earning nearly $500,000 — despite the strike relying on deception, decoy bombers, and stealth aircraft that left no public signal of timing.
“Across Polymarket, there has been a huge uptick in successful long shots in 2026, which is reflected in media headlines about suspicious, highly profitable wagers linked to military activity, notably in Venezuela and Iran. But this has been going on for a long time,” said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, Research Fellow at ACDC and lead author of the analysis. “The risks are systemic and the solutions need to be too,” she continued.
The CFTC can determine that contracts are contrary to the public interest if they involve assassination or war. It can also pass rules or regulations determining that other similar activity is contrary to the public interest. In its comment, ACDC urged the Commission to move swiftly to prohibit prediction market contracts on military events, and pass a rule determining that prediction market contracts on political events characterised by information asymmetries are contrary to the public interest.
David Szakonyi, Co-Founder of ACDC, said: “Government officials and members of our military being able to turn a profit on insider information incentivises corrosive corruption in public office and undermines national security. Moreover, for every insider winning a long shot bet using non-public information, there are users taking the losing bet with the reasonable belief that the odds are in their favour. This is patently unfair and contrary to the public interest. Regulators should shut down markets on political events with inherent information asymmetries.”
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Report: Insider Risks in Polymarket Political Markets (PDF)
Insider Risks in Polymarket Political Markets