Gambling on Democracy

October 9, 2026 By ACDC

Gambling on
Democracy

The 2026 midterms are the first U.S. congressional race since prediction markets became mainstream — and the volume and scale hides election integrity risks that cannot be ignored.

[Updated 8 October; data current to 30 September]

$221M

already bet on the 2026 midterms, with a month still to run. The entire 2024 cycle: $92.4M.

$1.4–1.6B

projected for the full cycle, depending on whether betting accelerates as it did in 2024.

2026 has already eclipsed 2024

Cumulative volume bet, by months to election day

The 2024 cycle finished at $92.4M. 2026 has already more than doubled that, with a month still to run before Election Day.

Five races swallow the money

Total wagered · top 15 congressional races

Texas, Maine, Michigan and South Carolina’s Senate races and Kentucky’s 4th District each draw several times more than the next-highest race.

A handful of wallets

Share of volume held by the top 1% · 2024 vs 2026

Ten wallets alone control 17% of all congressional volume on Polymarket. And 76% of markets hold under $1,000 — thin enough that a modest bet moves the odds.

How cheaply someone can move a price five cents?

Markets with live order books (30 Sept) grouped by price

Cost to move 5¢

Share of markets

Markets

Under $1

55.1%

8,224

$1–100

29.4%

4,385

$101–1,000

11.5%

1,722

$1,001–10,000

456

$10,000+

0.9%

130

More than half of all live markets can be pushed five cents off their mid-price for less than a dollar. Fewer than one in a hundred require $10,000.

Cost is the notional amount required to move the visible price five cents. Data from all congressional midterm markets on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US current as of 30 September 2026.

The potential for insider trading is increasing

Quarterly volume · 2025–2026

Volume traded each quarter on congressional markets that resolve on something knowable, across all three platforms.