Dashboard

Gambling on Democracy

August 17, 2026 By ACDC

Gambling on
Democracy

The 2026 midterms are the first U.S. congressional race since prediction markets became mainstream — and the volume and scale hides election integrity risks that cannot be ignored.

$133M

already bet on the 2026 midterms, with three months still to run. The entire 2024 cycle: $92.4M.

$1.4–1.6B

projected for the full cycle, depending on whether betting accelerates as it did in 2024.

2026 has already outpaced 2024

Cumulative volume bet, by months to election day
The 2024 cycle finished at $92.4M. 2026 has already passed that, with three months still to run before Election Day.

Four races swallow the money

Total wagered · top 15 congressional races
Texas, Maine, and Michigan’s Senate races and Kentucky’s 4th District each draw several times more than the next-highest race.

A handful of wallets

Share of volume held by the top 1% · 2024 vs 2026
Ten wallets alone control 17% of all congressional volume on Polymarket. And 87% of markets hold under $10,000 — thin enough that a modest bet moves the odds.

Gambling on Democracy
Edition 1

Methodology, market-level tables and platform breakdowns. August 17, 2026.

Download the briefing

Analysis covers 7,466 markets on 2026 U.S. congressional races and 464 markets on comparable 2024 races, across Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US. Data current as of 10 August 2026.

Support Anti-Corruption Data Collective
Donate Now!
administrator

ACDC

Related Articles

    Subscribe to our newsletter!

    Read:Terms & Conditions