Gambling on Democracy

November 2, 2026 By ACDC

Gambling on
Democracy

The 2026 midterms are the first U.S. congressional race since prediction markets became mainstream — and the volume and scale hides election integrity risks that cannot be ignored.

[Updated 2 November; data current to 29 October]

$431M

bet on the 2026 midterms by 29 October

Our Methodology

2026 has already outpaced 2024

Cumulative volume bet, by months to election day

The 2024 cycle finished at $123.8M. 2026 has already more than tripled that, with Election Day still to come.

Five races swallow the money

Total wagered · top 15 congressional races

Texas, Michigan, Maine and South Carolina’s Senate races and Kentucky’s 4th District account for 78% of the volume in the top 15 races. Texas alone draws $66.9M.

The top 1% are increasing their volume share

Share of 2026 congressional volume held by the top 1% of Polymarket wallets over time | The dotted line is the 2024 cycle at 79%

How cheaply can someone move a price five cents?

Markets with live order books (28 Oct) grouped by price

Cost to move 5¢

Share of markets

Markets

Change*

Under $1

27.8%

4,440

▼ 29%

$1–100

38.3%

6,123

▲ 11%

$101–1,000

24.4%

3,893

▲ 14%

$1,001–10,000

8.0%

1,285

▲ 4%

$10,000+

1.5%

244

▲ 1%

More than a quarter of live markets can still be pushed five cents off their mid-price for less than a dollar, and two-thirds for under $100. Just 1.5% require $10,000 or more.
*Change in share of markets since our first briefing, when 57% could be moved for under $1.

Cost is the notional amount required to move the visible price five cents. Data from all congressional midterm markets on Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US current as of 29 October 2026.

The potential for insider trading is increasing

Quarterly volume · 2025–2026

Volume traded each quarter on congressional markets that resolve on something knowable, across all three platforms.