Prediction market traders mimic potential military insiders, threatening operational security
New analysis finds that professional traders who take home most profits appear to follow the most likely true insiders, potentially amplifying leaks of sensitive information
Insider trading on military and defence markets on Polymarket risks broadcasting signals of impending actions, as professional high-volume traders and automated wallets piggyback on wagers by likely insiders, according to new analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.
Full report: Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket
An earlier ACDC report found that more than half of longshot bets (≥$2500 at ≤35c) on military and defence markets on Polymarket are successful. The new analysis published today drills deeper into wallet activity data available for Polymarket to separate the most likely insiders from high-frequency, high-volume traders, known as Whales, and semi-automated Bots.
The report introduces a new term for the most likely insider wallets: the Orca, a highly specialised and highly successful user who bets on only one or two types of market and wins 75% or more of their longshot bets. ACDC identified 152 wallets fitting the Orca profile that are active in military markets. Together they have won more than $8 million.
Further analysis of Orca wallets reveals other signs that these are the most likely insider traders.
More than half of Orcas made their first longshot bet within two days of creating an account on Polymarket, a possible sign they joined specifically to trade on privileged information.
Orcas wager more per longshot bet, despite the risks and low probabilities, and longshots dominate their total activity. Although Orcas spend less on the platform overall, more of their bets are longshots and the average volume exceeds that of Whales and Bots.
Orcas earn the highest returns on their investment. Consistent with their high success rate, Orcas post far higher returns than Whales and Bots, an average of 132% compared to losses of 2% and 1%, respectively.
ACDC found that prediction market power users tend to follow Orcas, piggybacking on their positions. Two spikes in Polymarket military market activity coinciding with the June 2025 and February 2026 U.S – Israeli strikes on Iran reveal a pattern of Whales and Bots piling on to positions first taken by Orca wallets.
David Szakonyi, ACDC co-founder and -director, said:
“The national security implications are incredibly disturbing. If the market can see and respond to this activity in real time, then so can military and intelligence agencies around the world. When highly capitalized wallets take big bets on outcomes that are first bought by potential insiders it amplifies the leak of insider information in a way that is impossible to contain. It’s like the details of classified briefing being live streamed and reshared by the biggest accounts.”
Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a research fellow at ACDC, said:
“Compared to the hundreds of wallets winning longshot bets on military markets, these 150 or so wallets are far easier for law enforcement, the CFTC, the Pentagon or authorities ovrseas to investigate. But, each one of these investigations takes many months, during which time damage continues to be done. It would be much better for Congress to pass an enforceable ban on the most problematic markets – including military events, as well as government actions and elections.”
ACDC used blockchain analytics tools to trace funds to and from Orca wallets. In aggregate, the results support the theory that these users are not habitual Polymarket or cryptocurrency users: more than other types of longshot bettor, they cash out to fiat and fund their betting from well-known exchanges. However, attempts to unmask specific users were frustrated by the use of routing wallets that pool multiple users’ funds.
“Polymarket global does not require customers to identify themselves, but law enforcement should use its subpoena power to find out who these Orcas really are,” added Kendler-Kretsch.
ENDS
Notes
For this report, ACDC examined 78,496 longshot bets and the 12,355 wallets that placed them, using data on all settled markets on Polymarket up to May 5, 2026.
Full report: Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) leverages public and private data to expose transnational corruption, illicit financial activity and corporate opacity. Our research and investigations seek to document and reduce the harms that corruption causes to human security, democratic participation and environmental sustainability: to People, Politics and Planet. www.acdatacollective.org
Previous work on insider trading on prediction markets
Report: Insider Risks in Polymarket Political Markets, April 30, 2026
Investigation: Profiting from War: Mysterious Bets on Polymarket, in partnership with Der Standard, June 11, 2026
For more information: team@acdatacollective.org
Classifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket